The Perfect Storm
I've been hearing a lot recently about this economy being the worst since the Hoover administration. This is clearly an exaggeration. I lived through the early '90s recession and frankly, it was a lot worse. Moreover, both recessions are relatively mild recession by historical standards, particularly when consideration of their short duration is emphasized.
In order to highlight the robustness of our country, it's important to review What the United States economy has gone through over the last 4 years:
-End of a business cycle.Despite this recipe for a perfect storm, the United States is still the strongest economy in the world. Unemployment stands near historical lows at 5.4%. Indeed, it is a miracle that our economy isn't worse.
-Bursting of the tech and telecom bubble.
-9/11 (with loss of nearly 100 billion dollars in infrastructure and lost economic activity) and the ensuing terror anxiety.
-Resultant near collapse of the airline/travel sector.
-Afghanistan War anxiety.
-Iraq War anxiety.
-Corporate and accounting scandals that created a crisis in investor confidence.
-Investment banking scandals at the nation's largest brokerage firms that question investors' reliance on impartial advice.
-Severe drought conditions in the western states and Colorado basin for the past 6 years that continue to this day.
-The arrival of China as a major production alternative that is capable of flooding the world's markets with cheap goods while simultaneously impacting domestic manufacturing jobs.
-The arrival of China as a major IT services alternative that impacts domestic software and call center employment.
-Severe energy price shocks largely as a result of a built in terror premium.
-Continued severe economic weakness within our main trading partners: Europe and Japan.


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